Top pickStrategy and planning
Pre-mortem for a big bet
Imagines the bet failed a year from now, then works backward to the causes, early warning signs and what to do now.
Use it when
Before you commit a quarter, a hire or a round to one plan.
What you fill in
- plan The plan, its goal and its timeline
- context Team, runway, market and anything already known to be shaky
The prompt
Run a pre-mortem on this plan. Plan: plan Context: context It is 12 months from now and the plan failed badly. Write as if looking back: 1. The story of how it failed, in one paragraph. 2. The 7 most likely causes, ranked by likelihood × impact. For each: the cause, why it is plausible here (cite the context), and the earliest signal we would see. 3. For the top 3 causes: one action we can take this month to reduce the risk, and what it costs. 4. The single assumption the whole plan rests on, and the cheapest test to check it within 2 weeks. Output as headed sections with a table for step 2 (Cause · Why plausible · Early signal · Likelihood · Impact). Be specific to this plan; generic risks like "poor execution" do not count. Before you answer, check your draft against every instruction above and fix anything that misses.
Why it works
- Prospective hindsight surfaces risks that forward planning misses.
- Ranking plus early signals turns worry into a watch list.
- Ends with one cheap test, so the output leads to action.