Anthropic red team finds small open models may soon self-replicate across cheap IoT devices

The Frontier Red Team bought 15 off-brand Android TV boxes at about $55 each, networked them, and ran Gemma4-26B-A4B across them at 0.39 tokens per second. It split replication into four stages: finding targets, gaining execution, setting up inference, and propagating from the new host. The study focused on inference setup and left the cyber exploit stages to earlier papers. Models of 30B parameters and under can already complete many individual steps but make mistakes when chaining them. In the simplified evaluations, GLM-5.2 and stronger models completed end to end replication. If small models keep improving at their historical rate, they should reach that level by the end of this year. The authors say such a replicator would be hard to shut down because it has no central point, though it could be slow, with a doubling time of days. For builders shipping open-weight models or agent harnesses, the post is a concrete threat model for how weights on commodity hardware could be abused. Security and policy teams will likely cite it in debates over open-weight releases.