ASML's strong orders ease fears AI spending boom is running out of steam

Third-quarter net sales came in at €11.66 billion, up 55% from a year earlier and 25% from Q2, with net income of €4.96 billion. Gross margin reached 57.5%. About €500 million of the profit came from a revaluation of the company's Mistral AI stake, which management said should not be extrapolated. Q4 guidance of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion at roughly a 57% margin lifts the 2026 outlook to €44 billion to €45 billion. Management said its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. Some customers are asking to reserve tools for 2029 and 2030. Chipmakers are raising their equipment forecasts mainly because of AI investment plans. Allocation of scarce lithography capacity is likely to favor the largest buyers, such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK hynix and Micron. For AI founders, the order book suggests the companies building compute are still committing capital years ahead. The same constraint caps how fast new chip supply can grow. Planning around tight, expensive compute through 2028 looks safer than assuming a near-term glut, and funding for infrastructure-heavy startups may stay competitive.